Post by John (@Agubata)

The calendar is quiet this week. The world is not.
Hey John,

Saturday morning I did what I always do on a weekend: coffee, the kids arguing about cartoons, and the news feed open on my phone while I pretended not to be working. Then the feed stopped being boring. The Houthis claimed ballistic-missile and drone strikes on Riyadh and on an Aramco site in Yanbu, on the Red Sea coast, the same coast the Saudis have been using to get oil out while the Strait of Hormuz stays shut. By Sunday, President Trump had cut his Camp David weekend short and gone back to the White House, reportedly reviewing strike options in Yemen. Gulf stock markets fell on Sunday because they trade on Sundays. Ours do not. Ours open tonight at 00:00 SAST, and that is where this week starts.

Here is the strange part. If you only looked at the economic calendar, this would be one of the quietest weeks of the quarter: no NFP, no CPI, no FOMC. The Fed already did its damage last Wednesday with the first hike since 2023. So this week is not about a red folder at 14:30. It is about a Sunday gap, a Wednesday full of PMIs and a SARB decision, and a dollar that just had a very strong week. Quiet calendar, loud world. Let me show you how I am planning it.

The 3 things that matter this week
1. The Sunday gap: Riyadh, Yanbu and the Red Sea. On Saturday 19 Sep the Houthis claimed missile and drone strikes on Riyadh (video showed smoke near King Khalid International Airport, where fuel storage was hit) and on an Aramco installation in Yanbu. They have also taken the port of Mokha and hold islands near the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint. This is the same pipeline story that pushed WTI toward the mid-$106s two weeks ago before it settled at $100.30 on Friday. Oil, gold and USDJPY are the instruments most likely to open with a gap tonight. My rule: I do not chase the first 30 minutes of a Sunday gap. I let it fill or fail, then I trade what is left.

2. The dollar after the hike: 10-year at 5%, DXY up 1.1% on the week. The Fed lifted rates to 3.75%–4.00% on Wednesday 16 Sep and Chair Warsh sounded like a man who is not finished. The BoE held at 3.75% on Thursday and the pound fell. The BoJ hiked to 1.25% on Friday and the yen still weakened, which tells you everything about who is in charge of this market. Result: EURUSD 1.1482, GBPUSD around 1.3380 (a six-week low), USDJPY near 158. This week has no top-tier US data to reverse that, only a parade of Fed speakers (Goolsbee Monday, Williams three times, Jefferson, Barkin, Barr, Hammack, Paulson). If they echo Warsh, the dollar keeps grinding. If one of them says "pause", you get the counter-trend pop.

3. Wednesday: flash PMIs across four economies plus the SARB. Germany 09:30, Eurozone 10:00, UK 10:30, US 15:45 SAST. PMIs are the first real read on whether all this hiking is slowing anyone down. Then, for my South African family, the Reserve Bank decides on the repo rate on Wednesday 23 Sep (currently 7.00%, July's vote was split 4–2 with two members wanting a hike; Citi and a few others expect a hike this time). If you trade USDZAR or hold rand-funded prop accounts, that is your red-folder day this week.

Day-by-day: Mon 21 – Fri 25 Sep
MONDAY 21 SEP
00:00 / 22:00 Sun Markets reopen after the weekend strikes. Watch the gap on XAUUSD, WTI/CL, USDJPY and BTC (crypto never closed, so BTC already tells you the mood). HIGH
03:15 / 01:15 China loan prime rate decision. Hold at 3.00% expected. AUD, copper, NAS100 sentiment. LOW
12:30 / 10:30 Fed's Goolsbee speaks. First Fed voice after the hike. USD, gold. MED
15:30 / 13:30 US open with the Nasdaq-100 rebalance in effect. NAS100/NQ flows can look odd in the first hour. MED
17:00 / 15:00 Bank of Canada's Macklem speaks. USDCAD, CAD crosses. LOW
TUESDAY 22 SEP
05:10 / 03:10 RBA Governor Bullock speaks. AUDUSD, AUDJPY. MED
16:05 / 14:05 Fed's Williams (16:05), Jefferson (16:20) and Barkin (19:00). Three Fed speakers in one US session. USD, gold, indices. MED
Pre-market / after close AutoZone before the open; KB Home after the close. Minor for US30. LOW
WEDNESDAY 23 SEP
09:30 / 07:30 Germany flash PMIs (manufacturing, services, composite). EURUSD, GER40. HIGH
10:00 / 08:00 Eurozone flash PMIs. EURUSD, EURGBP. HIGH
10:30 / 08:30 UK flash PMIs. GBPUSD, GBPJPY, UK100. HIGH
~15:00 / ~13:00 SARB repo-rate decision (repo 7.00%; hike or hold is a live debate). USDZAR, JSE. Confirm the exact time on the SARB site. HIGH
15:45 / 13:45 US flash PMIs (S&P Global). USD, NAS100, US30, gold. HIGH
16:05 / 14:05 Fed's Barr speaks. General Mills and Paychex report before the open. LOW
THURSDAY 24 SEP
03:30 / 01:30 Australia employment change and unemployment rate (4.5% last). AUDUSD. MED
09:30 / 07:30 Swiss National Bank decision (0.0% expected), press conference 10:00. USDCHF, EURCHF, gold in CHF terms. MED
14:30 / 12:30 US weekly jobless claims. Fed's Williams (10:10) and Hammack (14:50) also speak. USD, gold. MED
16:00 / 14:00 US new home sales (August). Fed's Paulson 16:10. LOW

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