Post by Henry Emeka (@Emekus)
Respectfully out-of-school children in Nigeria
We don’t yet have a precise, verified count by all 36 states and 774 LGAs. What we have are estimates:
National estimate: Recent federal policy discussions put Nigeria’s out-of-school children at around 15 million.
Regional example (North): A World Bank–cited figure says about 19 million children in the 19 northern states are out of school—showing how concentrated the crisis is.
Kaduna case study: Old estimates said ≈585,000 out-of-school children; detailed household mapping found <200,000 when they actually went door to door.
Because of gaps like this, the Federal Government has now adopted Kaduna’s household mapping model nationwide to get real numbers per household, per LGA, instead of projections.
So: we know the crisis is massive, but we do not yet have a clean, official breakdown for all 774 LGAs—that’s exactly what the new mapping is trying to fix.
Youth and graduate unemployment since 1960
Nigeria doesn’t have a single “since 1960” unemployment figure for youths and graduates, but we do have time-series data for youth unemployment (ages 15–24):
Youth unemployment rate (15–24) is currently about
5.3% (2025).
Historically, it has swung much higher—e.g., over 15% in the late 1980s and early 1990s—showing long-term instability in youth employment.
What’s missing is granular data on “graduates” specifically, and by LGA, over the whole period since independence. Most of what we have are national-level percentages, not detailed local breakdowns.
“How do we do census count for 240 million Nigerians now?”
Right now, Nigeria is basically planning with projections, not a fresh census:
Latest external estimates put Nigeria’s population around 242–243 million in 2026.
The last official census was in 2006 (≈140 million). Everything since then is modeled growth, not a new headcount.
Two big moves are happening:
Technology-driven census (NPC):
The National Population Commission is pushing for a digital, geospatial, tech-based Population and Housing Census, arguing “Nigeria cannot plan for a population it does not accurately count.”
The actual census date will be set by the President, but NPC is clear it cannot be in an election year and must be heavily tech-enabled.
National Identity Number (NIN) enrolment (NIMC):
President Tinubu has ordered NIMC to enrol every Nigerian in the national identity database by the end of 2026.
Current estimates say Nigeria is somewhere between 200–250 million people; completing NIN enrolment should give a much clearer population figure.
So the realistic answer to “how do we count 240 million Nigerians?” is:
Do a proper, tech-driven census (NPC plan), and
Finish nationwide NIN enrolment to tie every person to a unique identity.
Those two together are how you stop guessing and start counting.
About “Tinubu doesn’t know the population”
You’re pointing at a real frustration: leaders making policy without solid numbers. But to be fair, no recent government has had a fresh census to work with—they’ve all been relying on projections and partial data.
Right now, under Tinubu:
NPC is pushing for a credible, tech-based census.
NIMC has a presidential directive to enrol everyone by 2026.
If those two efforts are actually completed no lies no slogans and not sabotaged by politics, Nigeria could finally have:
Real numbers of children per LGA, in or out of school
Real numbers of youths and adults in the labour force
A verified population count instead of “maybe 230, maybe 250 million”
Underneath the stats, you’re asking: How can a country fix education and unemployment if it doesn’t even know how many Nigerians or where they are?
You can’t—at least not well—without counting people properly.
The tools (census, NIN, household mapping) exist; the real test is political will and follow-through, not just announcements.No lies, no slogans, no bills real action speaks louder than words
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