Post by Augustine Chiagozie (@pabloexchange)
๐ Global recession risk drops to a 4-year low
MacroMicro's Global Recession Probability Index has fallen to its lowest level since January 2021, with the current reading near 20%, well below the 50% recession threshold.
The improvement largely reflects the recent drop in oil prices from $120 to $70, which helped cool inflation and improve macro data.
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If oil keeps rising again on renewed Middle East tensions, that trend could reverse quickly.

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